Sep 27, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Are home resales rebounding?
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales rose 8 percent in August from the month prior, and 19 percent as compared to August of last year.
“Existing homes” are homes that are previously owned; ones that cannot be considered new construction.
A total of 5.0 million existing homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This is slightly better than the 12-month home resale average, a statistic partially powered by “distressed sales”. Distressed homes — homes in various stages of foreclosures or sold via short sale — accounted for 31 percent of all home resales in August. (more…)
Sep 23, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Single-Family Housing Starts fell for the second consecutive month, dropping to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 417,000 units in August 2011.
A “Housing Start” is defined as a home on which ground has broken.
We shouldn’t put too much faith in the findings, however. Although housing starts were lower last month, as noted by the Census Bureau, the margin of error in the August Housing Starts report exceeded the actual result.
From the official report:
- August’s Published Results : -1.4% from July
- August’s Margin of Error : ±10.3% from July
Therefore, August’s Housing Starts may have actually increased by up to +8.9% from July, or it may have dropped as much as -11.7%. We won’t know for sure until several months from now, after the Census Bureau has gathered more housing data.
One thing is certain, though — the long-term trend in Housing Starts is “flat”. There has been little change in new home construction since last summer.
The same can’t be said for Building Permits.
Considered a pre-cursor to Housing Starts, Single Family Building Permits climbed 2.5 percent with a minuscule Margin of Error of ±0.9 percent.
As is common in real estate, results varied by region: (more…)
Sep 21, 2011 | Federal Reserve
Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The vote was 7-3 — the second straight meeting at which the FOMC adjourned with as many 3 dissenters. Prior to that last meeting, there hadn’t been 3 FOMC dissenters since 1992.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented a dour outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in August:
- Economic growth “remains slow”
- Unemployment rates “remain elevated”
- The housing sector “remains depressed”
The Fed also said that there are “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook, tied to strains in the global financial markets.
The news wasn’t all bad, however. (more…)
Sep 21, 2011 | Federal Reserve
The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a two-day, scheduled meeting today, the sixth of 8 scheduled meetings this year, and the seventh Fed meeting overall.
The FOMC is a designated, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The FOMC is the voting members for the country’s monetary policy. Among its other responsibilities, the FOMC sets the Fed Funds Rate, the overnight rate at which banks borrow money from each other.
Note that the “Fed Funds Rate” is different from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not set by the Fed. Rather, they are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security traded among investors.
As the chart at top illustrates, the Fed Funds Rate and conforming mortgage rates in Fitchburg have little correlation. Since 1990, the two benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29 percent, and have been as close as 0.52 percent. (more…)
Sep 20, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Homebuilders are feeling worse about the market for new homes nationwide.
With construction credit tight and competition from foreclosures increasing, the National Association of Homebuilder’s Housing Market Index slipped 1 point in September, falling to levels just below the index’s 12-month average.
The HMI measures homebuilder confidence nationwide. It’s the result of 3 separate homebuilder surveys, each designed to measure a specific facet of the homebuilder’s business.
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
- How is prospective buyer foot traffic?
Each component survey showed a drop-off from August. Responses fell 1 point, 2 points, and 2 points, respectively. Together, September’s composite reading was 14 out of a possible 100 points. Readings over 50 are considered favorable.
The HMI not been above 50 since April 2006. (more…)
