Nov 18, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Another day, another signal that the market for newly-built homes is improving.
Single-Family Housing Starts rose to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized 430,000 units in October — a 4 percent increase from September and the highest reading in 3 months.
A “Housing Start” is a home on which ground has been broken.
The increase in surprised Wall Street analysts, although it shouldn’t have.
Earlier this week, the National Association of Homebuilders showed that Homebuilder Confidence is at its highest point since May 2010, the effect of better market conditions and more sold units. Rising housing starts amid a lift in builder confidence is to be expected — the two metrics have moved with loose correlation since mid-2000.
However, as with everything in real estate, Single-Family Housing Starts volume varied by location. The nation’s 4 regions posted wide-ranging results :
- Northeast Region : + 10.0% from September
- Midwest Region : -4.1% from September
- South Region : +11.3% from September
- West Region : -10.2% from September
Buyers of new construction in Fitchburg, Leominster area can infer two key points from last month’s data. (more…)
Nov 17, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Homebuilder confidence continues to rise.
Just two months after falling to a multi-month low, the Housing Market Index surged again in November, climbing another three points to 21. It’s the second straight month that the HMI posted a 3-point gain, catapulting the index to an 18-month.
The Housing Market Index is monthly report from the National Association of Homebuilders. It’s meant to measure confidence among the nation’s homebuilders, scored on a scale of 1-100.
When homebuilder confidence reads 50 or better, it reflects favorable conditions for homebuilders. Readings below 50 reflect unfavorable conditions.
The Housing Market Index has not read north of 50 since April 2006.
As an index, the HMI is actually a composite reading; the result of three separate surveys sent to homebuilders each month. The National Association of Homebuilders asks it members about current single-family home sales volume; projected single-family home sales volume over the next 6 months; and current “foot traffic”. (more…)
Nov 16, 2011 | Mortgage Guidelines
Tuesday, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac unveiled lender instructions for the government’s revamped HARP program, kick-starting a potential refinance frenzy across Massachusetts and nationwide.
HARP stands for Home Affordable Refinance Program. The updated program is meant to give “underwater homeowners” an opportunity to refinance at today’s low mortgage rates.
In the two-plus years since its launch, HARP’s first iteration helped fewer than 900,000 homeowners. HARP II, by contrast, is expected to reach millions.
Lenders begin taking HARP II loan applications December 1, 2011.
To apply for HARP, applicants must first meet 4 basic criteria :
- The existing mortgage must be guaranteed by Fannie Mae or by Freddie Mac
- The existing mortgage must have been securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac prior to June 1, 2009
- The mortgage payment history must be perfect going back 6 months
- The mortgage payment history may not include more than one 30-day late payment going back 12 months (more…)
Nov 15, 2011 | Housing Analysis
Foreclosed homes are a hot market throughout Massachusetts — and supplies are ramping up.
According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, October’s foreclosure filings rose 7 percent to 231,000 filings nationwide.
A “foreclosure filing” is any one of the following foreclosure-related events : A default notice on a home; a scheduled auction for a home; or, a bank repossession of a home. Because of this definition, a single home can account for up to 3 foreclosure filings — one from each category.
Because of this, we may glean more relevant insight into the foreclosure market by separating RealtyTrac’s foreclosure report into “event types”.
- Default Notices : Up 10% from September 2011; Down 31% from October 2010.
- Scheduled Auctions : Up 8% from September 2011; Down 38% from October 2010.
- Bank Repossessions : Up 4% from September 2011; Down 27% from October 2010.
These breakdowns suggest that, although improved as compared to last year, the foreclosure market is growing. At least, it’s growing in some parts of the country. We can’t forget that — like everything real estate — foreclosures are a local phenomenon.
In October, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country’s foreclosure filings. Those four states — California, Florida, Michigan and Illinois — represent just 26% of the U.S. population.
Even on a per household basis, the figures remain disproportionate :
- Top 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 341 households, on average
- Bottom 10 Foreclosure States : 1 foreclosure per 7,434 households, on average
The nationwide foreclosure rate was 1 foreclosure per 563 households.
As a Fitchburg home buyer, foreclosures are worth watching. They account for 18% of home resales nationwide and, in some markets, can be bought at steep discounts versus a comparable “non-distressed” home. That is part of their appeal, in fact.
But just because foreclosed properties can be a “deal”, it doesn’t mean you should rush to buy one. Buying a foreclosed home from a bank is different from buying a non-foreclosed home from a “person”. The contracts and negotiation process are different, and foreclosed homes are sometimes sold as-is.
“As-is” means “this home may have defects”.
Therefore, if you plan to buy a foreclosed home, talk with a real estate professional first. You can learn a lot about the housing market online, but with respect to writing an offer on a property, you’ll want an experienced agent on your side.
Nov 10, 2011 | Mortgage Guidelines
As part of its quarterly survey to member banks nationwide, the Federal Reserve asked senior loan officers whether last quarter’s “prime” residential mortgage guidelines have tightened, loosened, or remained as-is.
A “prime” borrower is defined as one with a well-documented, high-performance credit history; with low debt-to-income ratios; and who chooses to finance a home via a traditional fixed-rate or adjustable-rate mortgage product.
After a 2-year easing cycle, the nation’s biggest bank banks report that they’ve reversed course, and are raising the bar on mortgage approvals.
For the period July-September 2010, 88% of responding loan officers admitted to tightening their prime guidelines, or leaving them “basically unchanged”.
If you’ve applied for a home loan of late, you’ve experienced this first-hand.
High delinquency rates and defaults since 2007 have caused the banks to rethink what they will lend, and to whom. As a result, today’s mortgage lenders scrutinize assets, incomes, and credit scores to make sure that nothing “slips by”.
For today’s home buyers and would-be refinancers, the mortgage approval process can be challenging as compared to how it looked just 18 months ago.
- Minimum credit scores requirements are higher today
- Downpayment/equity requirements are larger today
- Debt-to-Income ratio requirements are more strict today
In other words, although mortgage rates are the lowest that they’ve been in history, fewer applicants can qualify. And, with more the housing market still in recovery, it’s likely that guidelines will tighten again in 2012.
Therefore, if you’re among the many people in Fitchburg wondering if it’s the right time to buy a home or refinance, consider that, although mortgage rates may fall, approval standards may not.
The best rate in the world won’t matter if you’re not eligible to lock it.
