Aug 1, 2012 | Housing Analysis
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 2.2% nationwide, with all 20 tracked markets making month-to-month improvement. On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved.
Despite the positive report, however, our enthusiasm for the May Case-Shiller Index should be tempered. This is because the index’s methodology is less-than-ideal for today’s Massachusetts home buyer.
There are three main reasons why :
- The Case-Shiller Index tracks values for single-family homes only
- The Case-Shiller Index is distorted by distressed, discounted home sales
- The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a 2-month lag
Perhaps even more important, though, is that the Case-Shiller Index ignores a basic tenet of the housing market — all real estate is local. It’s not possible for 20 cities to represent the U.S. housing market as a whole. Even more egregious is that the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller Index don’t represent the country’s twenty most populated cities.
The Case-Shiller Index specifically excludes home sale data from Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose — four of the nation’s 10 most populated cities. Yet, the index does include data (more…)
Jul 31, 2012 | Federal Reserve
In Washington, D.C. today, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a 2-day meeting, its fifth of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
Mortgage rates are expected to change upon the FOMC’s adjournment. Rate shoppers and home buyers of Massachusetts would do well to be alert.
The Federal Open Market Committee is a rotating 12-person subcommittee within the Federal Reserve. It’s the group which makes U.S. monetary policy.
“Making monetary policy” has many meanings but the action for which the FOMC is most well-known is its setting of the Fed Funds Funds. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other overnight.
Since late-2008, the Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent.
The Fed Funds Rate and Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate move along different paths. Sometimes, the two converge. Other times, they diverge. They’ve been separated by as much as 529 basis points in the past 12 years, and they’ve have been as near to each other as 52 basis points.
Clearly, there’s no correlation between the Fed’s Fed Funds Rate and the common 30-year mortgage. However, with its words, the Federal Reserve (more…)
Jul 27, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Home sales appear headed for a mid-summer breather.
One month after posting a multi-year high, the Pending Home Sales Index retreated to 99.3 in June — a strong reading in its own right.
A “pending home sale” is a home that is under contract to sell, but not yet sold. June’s value of 99.3 marks the 14th consecutive month during which the index showed year-to-year gains.
Last year in June, the index read 90.7.
For home buyers in Worcester County area and nationwide, the 14-month winning streak is one worth noting — specifically because the Pending Home Sales Index is different from the other housing market data that tends to make headlines.
Unlike the FHFA’s Home Price Index, for example; or the monthly New Home Sales data which both report on how housing performed in the past, the National Association of REALTORS®’ Pending Home Sales (more…)
Jul 26, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The number of newly-built homes sold slipped 8 percent in June from the month prior, says the U.S. Census Bureau in its latest New Home Sales report. The June data shows 350,000 homes sold nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
The home sale tally fell short of Wall Street expectations but the Census Bureau revised higher its previously-released results for March, April and May by a collective 33,000 units. This left the June New Home Sales report as the weakest of the last five months, yet still stronger than the 21 months preceding February.
In other words, despite retreating from May, the June New Home Sales data was still quite strong. As compared to June of last year, sales of newly-built homes are higher by 15% and the national inventory of new homes for sale is down to 144,000 units.
This marks a 13 percent inventory reduction in just twelve months.
At the current sales pace nationwide, the complete stock of new homes would “sell out” in 4.9 months, a noteworthy data point because analysts believe that a 6.0-month supply of (more…)
Jul 25, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The housing market’s bottom is 9 months behind us. Home values continue to climb nationwide.
According to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values rose 0.8% in May on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis. May’s reading marks the sixth time in seven months that home values rose.
Values are now higher by 4 percent since the market’s October 2011 bottom.
As a Worcester County area home buyer or seller, though, it’s important to understand what the Home Price Index measures. Or, more specifically, what the Home Price Index doesn’t measure.
Although widely-cited, the HPI remains widely-flawed, too. It should not be your sole source for real estate data.
As one example of how the Home Price Index is flawed, consider that the HPI only tracks the values of homes with an associated Fannie Mae- or Freddie Mac-backed mortgages. Homes with mortgages insured by the FHA are excluded, as are homes paid for with cash.
5 years ago, this wasn’t a big deal; the FHA insured just 4 percent of the housing market and cash sales were relatively small. Today, though, the FHA is estimated to insure more than 30% of new (more…)
