The U.S. housing market appears headed for a strong close to 2012.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold jumped to 389,000 units in September 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
Not since the expiration of the $8,000 federal home buyer tax credit in April 2010 have new homes sold at such volumes.
September’s tally marks a 5.7 percent increase from the month prior, and a 27 percent increase from September 2011. There are now just 145,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, according to the National Association of Homebuilders, buyer demand continues to grow.
At today’s pace of home sales, the entire U.S. inventory of new homes for sale would sell out in 4.5 months. By way of comparison, in January 2009, new home supply was 12.1 months.
When home supplies dip below 6.0 months, analysts say, it signifies a “seller’s market”; one in which sellers tend to benefit from negotiation leverage over buyers. The national New Home Supply has been below 6.0 months since October 2011.
Perhaps that’s one reason why the average new home sale price has climbed 14.5 percent over the past 12 months to $292,400; and why median new home sales prices have made a similar jump.
With builders reporting prospective buyer foot traffic at its highest level since 2006, home supplies are shrinking at a time when buyer demand is rising. Low mortgage rates and affordable housing choices contribute, too.
30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have been under 4 percent for all of 2012, and are now under 3.50% nationwide. Low rates make for low monthly payments but, like home prices, conditions can’t remain buyer-friendly forever.
For today’s home buyers of new construction, the outlook for finding “great deals” in 2013 may be grim. New home prices are expected to rise and supplies will continue to get scarce. The best homes in the new construction market, therefore, may be the ones you buy today.
By early-next year, low home prices may be gone, and low mortgage rates may be, too.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.
For the ninth consecutive meeting, the vote was nearly unanimous. And, also for the ninth consecutive meeting, Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Lacker was the lone dissenter in the 9-1 vote.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that, since its last meeting six weeks ago, the U.S. economy has been expanding “at a moderate pace”, led by growth in household spending. However, “strains in global financial markets” continue to remain threat to U.S. economic growth, a comment which references to the Eurozone and its economy.
The Fed’s statement also included the following economic observations :
Growth in employment has been slow; unemployment is elevated
Inflation pressures remains stable, and below 2%
Business spending on equipment and structures has slowed
In addition, the Fed addressed the housing market, stating that there have been “further signs” of improvement, “albeit from a depressed level”.
Finally, the Federal Reserve re-affirmed its commitment to its most recent stimulus program, a bond-buying program known as QE3.
Via QE3, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $40 billion in mortgage-backed bonds monthly, with no defined “end date”. QE3 is meant to suppress U.S. mortgage rates.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said that QE3 will remain in place until the U.S. economy has recovered in full, at least. It’s a plan that may help home buyers in Worcester County area and nationwide. Since QE3 launched, mortgage rates have moved to new all-time lows.
The Fed also used its meeting to announce that it intends to hold the Fed Funds Rate near its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent until mid-2015, at least.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a two-day event and its last of the year, December 11-12, 2012.
As the third quarter closed, home resales showed considerable momentum nationwide.
The National Association of REALTORS® reports Existing Home Sales at 4.75 million units in September 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, an 11 percent increase from one year ago.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied; a resale.
The reading marks the second-highest tally of the year — second only to August 2012 when 4.83 million homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. The real estate trade association reports that there are now just 2.32 million previously-occupied homes for sale nationwide.
It’s the thinnest national home supply since March 2005 and, at today’s sales pace, all 2.32 million homes would sell in 5.9 months.
A 6.0-month home supply is thought to represent a market in balance. September’s home supply, therefore, suggests a market which favors sellers. Buyers in many U.S. markets may have noticed this shift. Multiple-offer situations are increasingly common and “right-priced” homes are selling quickly.
The median Time on Market is down 31 percent from last year to 70 days nationwide.
Meanwhile, for purchasers of foreclosures and short sales, September Existing Home Sales report included interesting data on the relative value of buying “distressed” property :
Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 21% to market value last month
Short sales sold at an average discount of 13% to market value last month
And, although distressed homes remain a large part of the U.S. housing market, their relative size is shrinking.
In September, foreclosures and short sales accounted for roughly 1 in 4 home sales. Earlier this year, that figure was 1 in 3.
For today’s Worcester County area home buyer, September’s Existing Home Sales report may be a “buy signal”. With home supplies down and demand for homes rising, home prices are poised to increase through the last three months of 2012 and into the start 2013.
Mortgage markets worsened last week as hope for a European economic rebound and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data moved investors out of mortgage-backed bonds.
Mortgage rates all of types — conventional, FHA and VA — lost ground last week, harming home affordability in Worcester County area and reducing purchasing power nationwide.
Rising rates also thwarted would-be refinancing households hoping to time a market bottom.
The increase runs counter to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey which showed the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate dropping 2 basis points to 3.37% nationwide.
This contradiction occurred because Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rate survey is conducted Monday through Wednesday, and because the majority of the surveyed banks reply to Freddie Mac on Tuesday. As a consequence, Freddie Mac failed to capture this week’s mid-week movement that took mortgage bonds to a one-month worst.
Access to Freddie Mac mortgage rates is for “prime” borrowers and requires payment of discount points plus closing costs.
This week, mortgage rates may rise again. There is a lot of news on which for Wall Street to trade, beginning with the week’s biggest story — the Federal Open Market Committee’s 2-day meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the FOMC’s last meeting, the Federal Reserve introduced a third round of qualitative easing (QE3), a program through which the Fed will work to keep mortgage rates low until the economy’s recovery is more complete.
The Fed is expected to announce no new stimulus in this, its seventh of eight scheduled meetings for 2012, however, mortgage rates are typically volatile in the hours after the FOMC adjourns.
New housing data is set for release this week, too.
Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will release September’s tally of New Home Sales. Given the recent strength in Housing Starts and rising confidence among the nation’s home builders, New Home Sales may best analyst calls for 385,000 new home sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis.
Strength in housing has recently correlated with rising mortgage rates.
The housing market’s forward-looking Pending Home Sales Index is released Thursday.
The U.S. housing market recovery is underway. New home sales are at a multi-year high, housing starts are at pre-recession levels, and home builders plan for a strong 2013.
Since late-2011, falling mortgage rates have boosted buyer purchasing power. Now, today, in many U.S. markets, the number of active home buyers outnumbers the number of active home sellers. It’s among the reasons why home supplies remain scarce and why home prices are rising.
Roughly 20 percent of today’s home buyers purchase homes with cash. For everyone else, the ability to gain mortgage approval depends on income, assets, and, most importantly, credit scores. Your credit score is a predictor of your future payment performance and lenders pay close attention.
If you plan to buy a home in Worcester County area or anywhere else in the next 12 months, spend some time with this The Today Show interview. It’s five minutes of practical credit scoring advice, including separation of credit score myth from credit score fact.
Among the credit scoring tips shared :
How to get your credit checked without harming your credit score
The value of using automatic payments with credit cards
How to use “old” credit cards to boost your credit score
You’ll also learn about utility companies and why you should never be late with payment.
As compared to August 2011, last month’s average, mortgage-financing home buyer’s FICO score improved 9 points to 750. The average “denied” mortgage applicant’s FICO score was 704. Clearly, standards are high. However, credit scoring is a system and, with time, you can improve your rating.
Watch the interview and find ways to make your credit score better. With better credit comes better mortgage rates.
The U.S. housing market appears headed for a strong close to 2012.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent Wednesday.
Mortgage markets worsened last week as hope for a European economic rebound and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data moved investors out of mortgage-backed bonds.