Jul 11, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Where economic growth goes, housing growth often follows.
That’s why it’s good news for homeowners that 84 U.S. metropolitan areas are showing “measurable and sustained growth” this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ Improving Market Index.
The Improving Market Index is a derivative report, based on the results of three separate data series which examine a city’s local economy.
The data series used in the IMI are :
- Employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Home price data from Freddie Mac
- One-unit building permits from the Census Bureau
The NAHB compiles this data monthly, assigning a given metropolitan area the label “improving” if the following two conditions are met. First, all three data series above must show growth (more…)
Jul 3, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Homes are going under contract at a quickening pace.
In May, for the second time in 3 months, the Pending Home Sales Index crossed the 100 barrier, stretching to 101.1. A “pending home sale” is a home under contract to sell, but not yet sold.
Statistically, the Pending Home Sales Index reading is significant for two reasons.
First, the index’s reading is at its highest since April 2010. From this, we infer that today’s pace of home buying in Massachusetts and nationwide is approaching the “stimulated” levels of two years ago — but without the federal stimulus.
This is a positive signal for the housing market.
Second, because the Pending Home Sales Index is a relative index; and, because it was assigned a value of 100 upon its inception in 2001, readings higher than 100 imply that the housing market is performing better than it did during the index’s first year.
2001 happened to be a strong year for housing. 2012, it seems, is shaping up to be a better one.
And, there’s another reason why the Pending Home Sales Index matters so much to buyer and sellers of Massachusetts — the Pending Home Sales Index is among the few “forward-looking” housing market indicators.
Rather than report on how the housing market looked 30-60 days in the past, as the Case-Shiller Index does; or the Existing Home Sales report, the Pending Home Sales Index looks 30-60 days to the future.
80% of homes under contract sell within 2 months so, as the Pending Home Sales Index goes, so goes housing. Based on May’s data, therefore, we can assume that home sale figures will rise through the summer.
If you’re shopping for homes right now, consider going under contract while the market remains somewhat soft. Mortgage rates are low and so are home prices. It makes for good home-buying conditions.
Jun 29, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8% in April on a monthly, seasonally-adjusted basis.
April marks the third consecutive month during which home values increased and the index is now up 3 percent from last year at this time.
As a home buyer in Worcester County area , it’s easy to look at the Home Price Index and believe that its recent, sustained climb is proof of a broader housing market recovery. Ultimately, that may prove true. However, we cannot base our buy-or-sell decisions on the HPI because, like the private-sector Case-Shiller Index, the Home Price Index is flawed.
There are three main flaws in the FHFA’s Home Price Index. They cannot be ignored.
First, the FHFA Home Price Index’s sample set is limited to homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. By definition, therefore, the index excludes homes with mortgages insured by the FHA. (more…)
Jun 27, 2012 | Housing Analysis
The new construction market continues to improve.
As reported by the Census Bureau, 369,000 new homes were sold last month on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction.
May’s data marks the highest number of new homes sold since April 2010, the last month of that year’s federal home buyer tax credit.
It’s also a 14% increase over the rolling 12-month average.
The news was somewhat expected based on the most recent Homebuilder Confidence survey, which rose to a 5-year high. Home builders have been reporting higher sales volume and rising buyer foot traffic since October of last year.
The May New Home Sales report confirms (more…)
Jun 26, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Home resales slipped last month; a slight setback for the nation’s housing market’s recovery.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, Existing Home Sales fell to 4.55 million units in May 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis, representing a 2 percent drop from April.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously owned or occupied, and cannot be categorized as new construction.
Despite May’s retreat, however, as compared to last year at this time, Existing Home Sales by units are higher by 10 percent. In other words, like everything else in housing, the long-term statistical trend has been a positive one. (more…)
Jun 20, 2012 | Housing Analysis
Sometimes, the housing data headlines tell just half the tale. The stories on May’s Housing Starts figures are proving to be a terrific illustration.
Tuesday, the Census Bureau released its monthly Housing Starts report. A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
The report is separated by property type with a separate count for single family homes such as detached residences and town homes; for multiple-unit homes such as 2-unit, 3-unit and 4-unit structures; and, for buildings of 5-units of more such as new condominiums.
In May, Housing Starts fell 4.8 percent nationwide. This runs contrary to recent housing market statistics and home builder confidence data which both have suggested a recovery. (more…)
