Dec 13, 2011 | Federal Reserve
Tuesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The vote was nearly unanimous for the second straight month. Just one FOMC member dissented in the vote, favoring additional policy stimulus beyond what the Federal Reserve currently provides.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve sais that the the U.S. economy is improving, noting that since its November 2011 meeting, the economy has been “expanding moderately”. The Fed also added that domestic growth is occurring despite some “apparent slowing in global growth” — a nod to ongoing uncertainty within the Eurozone.
The Federal Reserve expects a moderate pace of growth over the next (more…)
Dec 6, 2011 | Federal Reserve
The Federal Open Market Committee released its November 2011 meeting minutes, revealing a Fed split on whether new stimulus is needed for the U.S. economy.
The Fed Minutes is published 8 times annually, three weeks after each scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting. It’s the official record of the meeting’s policy-shaping debates and dialogues.
The Fed Minutes is the lengthier companion piece to the FOMC’s more well-known, post-meeting press release.
As compared to press release which is concise and focused at 492 words, the Fed Minutes is comprehensive and broad, totalling 7,682 words over 11 pages, complete with charts.
The November minutes reveal Fed opinions on a variety of economic issues :
- On employment : Unemployment will gradually decline through 2014
- On housing : The market remains depressed. Foreclosures are “holding back” growth.
- On rates : The Fed Funds Rate should remain low until mid-2013
There was also discussion about the government’s revamped HARP program, (more…)
Nov 2, 2011 | Federal Reserve
Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The vote was nearly unanimous, with just one dissenting voter. There were 3 dissenters at each of the FOMC’s last two meetings.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented an improved outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in September, there’s new evidence that the economy “strengthened somewhat” in the third quarter.
One example cited is that consumer and business spending continues to rise while inflationary pressures on the economy remain modest. This indicates controlled growth — a plus in a recovering economy.
The economy remains slowed by a number of factors, though, as noted by the Fed :
- “Continuing weakness” in the labor market
- Softness in commercial real estate
- A “depressed” housing market
In response to mixed economic conditions, the FOMC opted to “do nothing” today; it introduced no new monetary policy, and revised none of its existing market stimulus. The Fed re-iterated its plan to leave the Fed Funds Rate in its current range near 0.000 percent “at least until mid-2013″ and affirmed “Operation Twist” — the program in which the Fed sells Treasury securities with a maturity of 3 years or less, and uses the proceeds to buy mortgage bonds with maturity between 6 and 30 years. (more…)
Nov 1, 2011 | Federal Reserve
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a scheduled, 2-day meeting today, the seventh of its 8 scheduled meetings this year, and the eighth Fed meeting overall.
The FOMC is a 12-person sub-committee within the Federal Reserve. It’s the group responsible for setting the nation’s monetary policy and is led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.
The FOMC’s most well-known role is as the steward of the Fed Funds Rate. This is the overnight rate at which U.S. banks borrow money from each other. The Fed Funds Rate is a unique, “banking” interest rate, and should not be confused with consumer interest rates, a category which includes “mortgage rates”.
Mortgage rates are not set by the Federal Reserve.
Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds. If mortgage rates correlated to the FOMC’s Fed Funds Rate, the chart at right would be linear.
That said, the FOMC does exert influence on mortgage markets.
After its FOMC meetings, the Federal Reserve issues a press release to the public. In it, the central banker summarizes economic conditions nationwide, highlighting threats to the economy and areas of strength.
When the Federal Reserve’s statement is generally “positive”, mortgage rates tend to rise. This is because a strengthening economy invites investors to assume more risk, spurring equity markets at the expense of all bonds types, including the mortgage-backed kind.
When bond markets lose, mortgage rates rise.
Conversely, when the Fed is generally negative, bond markets gain, pushing mortgage rates lower throughout Massachusetts.
The Fed can also influence mortgage rates via new policy.
At its last meeting, the FOMC launched a new, $400-billion round of mortgage-market stimulus known as Operation Twist. The added mortgage-bond support led mortgage rates lower post-FOMC meeting.
The Fed may expand Operation Twist as soon as Wednesday afternoon. It may also take no such steps at all. Unfortunately, there are few clues about what the Federal Reserve may do next, if anything at all. As a result, mortgage rates will be a moving target for the next 36 hours. First, they’ll be volatile before of the Fed’s statement. Then, they’ll be volatile after the Fed’s statement.
Even if the Fed does nothing, mortgage rates will change so your safest play is to lock a mortgage rate ahead of Wednesday’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment.
There too much risk in floating.
Oct 14, 2011 | Federal Reserve
Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its 2-day meeting September 20-21, 2011.
The release shows a divided Fed in disagreement about the current U.S. monetary policy. The group reached compromise for new economic stimulus, however, and maintained its commitment to accommodative interest rates.
Wall Street reacted tepidly to the minutes. Mortgage rates in Leominster worsened slightly post-release.
The Fed Minutes gets less press than the FOMC’s post-meeting press release, but it’s every bit as important. Because it details the conversations that take place among voting and non-voting Fed members at FOMC meetings, the Fed Minutes is an inside-look at the debates and discussion that lead to new monetary policy.
As examples, here are some of the topics covered at the September FOMC meeting :
- On growth : Economic growth was slow, but “did not suggest a contraction”
- On housing : The market continues to be “depressed by weak demand”
- On rates : The Fed Funds Rate will remain low until mid-2013
Then, with Fed members divided on whether the central bank should add new stimulus, it reached a compromise instead, launching the $400 billion “Operation Twist” program. Operation Twist is meant to lower longer-term interest rates, including mortgage rates.
Since Operation Twist began, mortgage rates are higher by nearly 0.375%.
Also noteworthy within the Fed Minutes was concern for an economic slowdown and how the Federal Reserve may react. According to the record, a slowdown may prompt the Fed to introduce its third round of qualitative easing, or QE3. An out-sized stimulus plan would likely lead rates higher.
Nothing will happen until the Fed’s next meeting, however. Chairman Ben Bernanke & Co meet next November 1-2 for a 2-day meeting..
Sep 21, 2011 | Federal Reserve
Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The vote was 7-3 — the second straight meeting at which the FOMC adjourned with as many 3 dissenters. Prior to that last meeting, there hadn’t been 3 FOMC dissenters since 1992.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve presented a dour outlook for the U.S. economy, noting that since its last meeting in August:
- Economic growth “remains slow”
- Unemployment rates “remain elevated”
- The housing sector “remains depressed”
The Fed also said that there are “significant downside risks” to the economic outlook, tied to strains in the global financial markets.
The news wasn’t all bad, however. (more…)
